PENGUIN: Enhancing Transformer with Periodic-Nested Group Attention for Long-term Time Series Forecasting

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is a fundamental task with wide-ranging applications. Although Transformer-based models have made significant breakthroughs in forecasting, their effectiveness for time series forecasting remains debatable. In this paper, we revisit the significance of self-attention and propose a simple yet effective mechanism, Periodic-Nested Group Attention, namely PENGUIN. Our approach highlights the importance of explicitly modeling periodic patterns and incorporating relative attention bias for effective time series modeling. To this end, we introduce a periodic-nested relative attention bias that captures periodic structures directly. To handle multiple coexisting periodicities (e.g., daily and weekly cycles), we design a grouped attention mechanism, where each group targets a specific periodicity using a multi-query attention mechanism. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks demonstrate that PENGUIN consistently outperforms both MLP-based and Transformer-based models. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/AISTATS2026_PENGUIN-0711/.