Thompson Sampling-like Algorithms for Stochastic Rising Bandits

Stochastic rising rested bandit (SRRB) is a setting where the arms' expected rewards increase as they are pulled. It models scenarios in which the performances of the options grow as an effect of an underlying learning process (e.g., online model selection). Even if the bandit literature provides specifically crafted algorithms based on upper-confidence bounds for such a setting, no study about Thompson sampling (TS)-like algorithms has been performed so far. The strong regularity of the expected rewards in the SRRB setting suggests that specific instances may be tackled effectively using adapted and sliding-window TS approaches. This work provides novel regret analyses for such algorithms in SRRBs, highlighting the challenges and providing new technical tools of independent interest. Our results allow us to identify under which assumptions TS-like algorithms succeed in achieving sublinear regret and which properties of the environment govern the complexity of the regret minimization problem when approached with TS. Furthermore, we provide a regret lower bound based on a complexity index we introduce. Finally, we conduct numerical simulations comparing TS-like algorithms with state-of-the-art approaches for SRRBs in synthetic and real-world settings.