Skip to yearly menu bar Skip to main content


Poster

Efficient Conformal Prediction under Data Heterogeneity

Vincent Plassier · Nikita Kotelevskii · Aleksandr Rubashevskii · Fedor Noskov · Maksim Velikanov · Alexander Fishkov · Samuel Horvath · Martin Takac · Eric Moulines · Maxim Panov

Multipurpose Room 1 - Number 89

Abstract:

Conformal prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on the data exchangeability, a condition often violated in practice. Existing approaches for tackling non-exchangeability lead to methods that are not computable beyond the simplest examples. In this work, we introduce a new efficient approach to CP that produces provably valid confidence sets for fairly general non-exchangeable data distributions.We illustrate the general theory with applications to the challenging setting of federated learning under data heterogeneity between agents. Our method allows constructing provably valid personalized prediction sets for agents in a fully federated way. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated in a series of experiments on real-world datasets.

Live content is unavailable. Log in and register to view live content