Abstract: We analyze the performance of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) for the linear model when the number of regressors $N$ grows larger keeping the true support size $d$ finite, i.e., the ultra-sparse case. The result is based on a novel treatment of the non-rigorous replica method in statistical physics, which has been applied only to problem settings where $N$, $d$ and the number of observations $M$ tend to infinity at the same rate. Our analysis makes it possible to assess the average performance of Lasso with Gaussian sensing matrices without assumptions on the scaling of $N$ and $M$, the noise distribution, and the profile of the true signal. Under mild conditions on the noise distribution, the analysis also offers a lower bound on the sample complexity necessary for partial and perfect support recovery when $M$ diverges as $M = O(\log N)$. The obtained bound for perfect support recovery is a generalization of that given in previous literature, which only considers the case of Gaussian noise and diverging $d$. Extensive numerical experiments strongly support our analysis.